> ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.binibit.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Simulation & Cohort Projections > Day-to-Level-30 scenarios, USBI supply growth, and DEX TVL projections. The economy model has been simulated under multiple scenarios. This page shows the key outputs. ## Single-user progression scenarios Solo users with no skin/lottery spend, varying claim cadence and referral count: | Scenario | Active refs | Referral CRS/day | Lessons max day | Level 30 day | Level @ d120 | XP @ d120 | USBI @ d120 | | ------------------------------- | ----------: | ---------------: | --------------: | -----------: | -----------: | --------: | ----------: | | Solo 2 claims/day | 0 | 0 | 109 | 352 | 11 | 289.82M | 29,981 | | Solo 3 claims/day | 0 | 0 | 91 | 292 | 13 | 348.56M | 35,856 | | 2 claims + 50 invited | 10 | 160,000 | 99 | 329 | 12 | 315.49M | 32,549 | | 2 claims + 100 invited | 20 | 320,000 | 90 | 316 | 13 | 339.96M | 34,996 | | 2 claims + 500 invited (capped) | 100 | 500,000 | 88 | 297 | 14 | 367.37M | 37,736 | The 500K CRS/day referral cap (kicks in at \~250 active referrals at the 20% active-rate assumption) prevents runaway farming. ## Checkpoint snapshots Detailed state at day boundaries for the 2-claim and 3-claim scenarios: ### 2 claims/day | Day | Level | Lesson upgrades | XP | Bonus/hour | Mining/day (excl. calendar) | Total USBI | | --- | ----: | --------------: | ------: | ---------: | --------------------------: | ---------: | | 30 | 5 | 199 | 50.38M | 42,850 | 422,800 | 6,038 | | 60 | 7 | 258 | 116.64M | 101,350 | 890,800 | 12,663 | | 90 | 9 | 289 | 185.77M | 157,550 | 1,340,400 | 19,576 | | 120 | 11 | 300 | 289.82M | 184,650 | 1,557,200 | 29,981 | | 180 | 17 | 300 | 480.31M | 184,650 | 1,557,200 | 49,030 | | 240 | 21 | 300 | 670.79M | 184,650 | 1,557,200 | 68,079 | | 300 | 26 | 300 | 861.28M | 184,650 | 1,557,200 | 87,127 | | 360 | 30 | 300 | 1.05B | 184,650 | 1,557,200 | 101,000 | ### 3 claims/day | Day | Level | Lesson upgrades | XP | Bonus/hour | Mining/day | Total USBI | | --- | ----: | --------------: | ------: | ---------: | ---------: | ---------: | | 30 | 5 | 206 | 54.66M | 47,650 | 691,800 | 6,465 | | 60 | 7 | 259 | 121.00M | 102,750 | 1,353,000 | 13,100 | | 90 | 9 | 299 | 214.41M | 182,150 | 2,305,800 | 22,441 | | 120 | 13 | 300 | 348.56M | 184,650 | 2,335,800 | 35,856 | | 180 | 19 | 300 | 585.76M | 184,650 | 2,335,800 | 59,576 | | 240 | 25 | 300 | 822.97M | 184,650 | 2,335,800 | 83,296 | | 300 | 30 | 300 | 1.06B | 184,650 | 2,335,800 | 101,000 | | 360 | 30 | 300 | 1.30B | 184,650 | 2,335,800 | 101,000 | By day 300 the 3-claim user has hit the maximum (Level 30, 101K USBI). XP continues accruing past the 1B cap but no longer affects level or entitlement. ## Cohort USBI supply Total virtual USBI supply by user count and stage: | Users | At launch | Lessons maxed (L10) | Level 20 | Level 30 | | ------ | ---------: | ------------------: | ------------: | ------------: | | 500 | 500,000 | 12,000,000 | 30,500,000 | 50,500,000 | | 1,000 | 1,000,000 | 24,000,000 | 61,000,000 | 101,000,000 | | 10,000 | 10,000,000 | 240,000,000 | 610,000,000 | 1,010,000,000 | | 50,000 | 50,000,000 | 1,200,000,000 | 3,050,000,000 | 5,050,000,000 | These are virtual-supply ceilings, not hard mints. Actual circulating USBI depends on user behavior (claim, bridge, hold). ## DEX liquidity simulation Assuming **10% of USBI** flows to LP and the LP-to-MC ratio is 5%: | Users | Stage | Total USBI | 10% LP USBI | Matched wBINI | Pool TVL | Implied MC | | ------ | ------------: | ------------: | ----------: | ------------: | ----------: | ------------: | | 500 | At launch | 500,000 | 50,000 | 416,667 | 100,000 | 2,000,000 | | 500 | Lessons maxed | 12,000,000 | 1,200,000 | 10,000,000 | 2,400,000 | 48,000,000 | | 1,000 | At launch | 1,000,000 | 100,000 | 833,333 | 200,000 | 4,000,000 | | 1,000 | Lessons maxed | 24,000,000 | 2,400,000 | 20,000,000 | 4,800,000 | 96,000,000 | | 10,000 | At launch | 10,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 8,333,333 | 2,000,000 | 40,000,000 | | 10,000 | Lessons maxed | 240,000,000 | 24,000,000 | 200,000,000 | 48,000,000 | 960,000,000 | | 50,000 | Lessons maxed | 1,200,000,000 | 120,000,000 | 1,000,000,000 | 240,000,000 | 4,800,000,000 | At 10K users with all lessons maxed, the implied MC of $960M is already approaching the [wBINI cap](/tokenomics/wbini-cap) ceiling of $240M. This is why the design pushes most activity into [USBI/Agent Token pools](/baidex/overview), where the wBINI cap doesn't apply. ## Interpretation * **Solo 2-claim users reach Level 30 around day 352.** Acceptable but slow — this is the lower bound for casual users. * **Solo 3-claim users reach Level 30 around day 292.** Reasonable for engaged users. * **Referrals shave \~50–60 days off the path to Level 30**, but the 500K CRS/day cap caps that benefit. Spam-inviting beyond \~250 active refs adds nothing. * **At 10K users, virtual USBI hits \$1B.** Liquidity must distribute across many pools — the wBINI/USBI anchor pool alone cannot absorb it. ## Related XP curve and stage table Cost/bonus formulas behind these numbers floor(XP / 10K), capped at 100K Why pools must distribute